The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) face the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) in the Orange Bowl Thursday in a College Football Playoff semifinal. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Notre Dame vs. Penn Stateodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions will battle in South Florida for the opportunity to play in the CFP Championship Game Monday, Jan. 20, in Atlanta against the Cotton Bowl winner between Ohio State and Texas.
Notre Dame humbled Georgia 23-10 in a quarterfinal, cashing as a 1-point favorite with the Under (45) hitting Jan. 2 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans in a game postponed a day due to the tragedy on Bourbon Street on New Year’s Day. Notre Dame led 13-3 before WR/KR Jayden Harrison returned a kickoff 98 yards to open the second half to increase the lead to 17. The Fighting Irish finished with 154 rushing yards against the vaunted Dawgs defense, and it limited Georgia offense to just 62 yards on the ground.
Notre Dame opened these playoffs with a 27-17 home win against Indiana Dec. 20 in the first round, cashing as a 6.5-point favorite with the Under (50.5) cashing. The Fighting Irish held the Hoosiers to 63 rushing yards and 215 passing yards in a game that wasn’t as close as the score. Notre Dame led 27-3 with 4:50 to go after QB Riley Leonard’s 1-yard TD run before Indiana tacked on 2 late TDs.
Penn State advanced to this semifinal by working over Boise State 31-14, covering as an 11.5-point favorite in the Fiesta Bowl and the Under (54.5) hitting in a New Year’s Eve game. Boise’s Heisman finalist RB Ashton Jeanty rushed for 104 yards on 30 carries, but he was held out of the end zone. The Nittany Lions doubled up the Broncos in rushing yards 216-108, while QB Drew Allar tossed 3 TDs among his 171 passing yards in the victory.
Penn State thumped SMU 38-10 Dec. 21 in the first round in Happy Valley, easily covering as a 9-point favorite with the Under (51) cashing. The Nittany Lions built a 14-0 lead with a pair of pick-sixes in the first 16:51 of the game. Penn State held a 28-0 lead at halftime, too, and it limited the Mustangs to just 58 yards on the ground while gobbling up 189 rushing yards of its own.
Notre Dame is No. 3 in the US LBM Coaches Poll (Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports), while Penn State is No. 5.
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Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Notre Dame -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Penn State +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Notre Dame -1.5 (-110) | Penn State +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Notre Dame vs. Penn State picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 23, Penn State 19
Moneyline
Notre Dame (-120) is favored by just a point and a half, so it makes little sense to play the extra juice if you like the Fighting Irish, unless you’re absolutely convinced they’ll only win by 1 point.
PASS on the moneyline unless it unexpectedly moves to a flat 3 or more.
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Against the spread
NOTRE DAME -1.5 (-110) is a much more economical play.
The Fighting Irish should be able to get the job done, although you can expect points to be at a premium in South Florida. The dual threat QB Leonard can lead them to victory with his feet as well as with his arm.
The Nittany Lions have benefited from facing less experienced teams in SMU and Boise State, who aren’t marquee teams like Notre Dame.
Over/Under
UNDER 44.5 (-105) is worth a look, although it certainly is a low number in this day and age of tossing the rock around.
However, we have sturdy defenses on both sides, particularly against the run, so expect points to be tough to come by.
The Under cashed in both team’s first 2 playoff games, and a third is expected in South Florida.
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