The LA Chargers (11-6) and Houston Texans (10-7) meet Saturday in the AFC Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chargers vs. Texansodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Chargers underwent a major culture shift in the offseason, starting with the hiring of Jim Harbaugh as coach. The change paid off as they finished the season on a 3-game win streak, racking up 11 wins—an impressive 6-win improvement from last year. They capped off the regular season with a 34-20 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18, covering as 7-point road favorites as the Over 41.5 hitting as well.
Defense led the way for L.A., holding opponents to just 17.7 points per game, the best mark in the NFL. The team also excelled at protecting the ball, forcing 21 turnovers while giving it away just 9 times all season.
QB Justin Herbert delivered his most efficient season yet, throwing 23 TDs with only 3 INTs and posting a career-high 101.7 passer rating. Rookie WR Ladd McConkey was a breakout star, finishing fourth among a loaded rookie receiver class with 1,149 yards and 7 TDs.
With this remade roster and strong momentum, the Chargers are heading to the postseason for just the second time since 2018.
The Houston Texans had a roller-coaster season, starting strong with a 5-1 record but ultimately finishing with just 2 wins in their last 7 games. They closed out the regular season with a 23-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans, covering as 2.5-point road underdogs, and hitting the Over 36.5.
RB Joe Mixon had a standout year, reaching 1,000 rushing yards for the fifth time in his career and adding double-digit TDs (11) for the second time.
QB C.J. Stroud, after an impressive rookie season, took a step back, posting fewer yards, TDs, and more INTs. Injuries to his top wide receivers didn’t help, with Stefon Diggs (8 games), Tank Dell (14 games), and Nico Collins (12 games) all missing time. Collins will be good to go for the playoffs.
After securing their first playoff win since 2019, the Texans are looking to add a second postseason victory.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Chargers at Texans odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Friday at 12:23 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chargers -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Texans +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chargers -3 (-105) | Texans +3 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 42 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Chargers at Texans key injuries
Chargers
- RB J.K. Dobbins (ankle) questionable
- WR Simi Fehoko (elbow) questionable
- WR Quentin Johnston (groin/illness) questionable
- WR Josh Palmer (foot) out
- LB Denzel Perryman (groin) questionable
- OL Trey Pipkins (oblique) questionable
- CB Ja’Sir Taylor (rib) doubtful
Texans
- DL Denico Autry (knee) questionable
- LB Christian Harris (ankle) questionable
- OL Shaq Mason (knee) out
- WR John Metchie III (shoulder) questionable
- TE Teagan Quitoriano (calf) questionable
FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS
Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week:Get ESPN+
Chargers at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Chargers 28, Texans 21
Moneyline
PASS.
Momentum will carry the Chargers (-160) to a victory on Saturday, but I’d rather get the better odds on Los Angeles with the spread.
Against the spread
BET CHARGERS -3 (-105).
It’s tough not to like the Chargers in this matchup. They’ve been one of the most reliable ATS teams, covering in 5 of their last 6 games and 12 out of 17 contests. The Texans haven’t exactly been dominant at home, finishing 5-3 and dropping 3 of their last 4 in Houston.
The Chargers’ defense is elite, allowing just 17.7 points per game (PPG)—the best in the league. They play smart, disciplined football, with only 9 turnovers all year, second-fewest in the NFL. They dominate the trenches, too, with top-tier tackles Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt, plus defensive stars Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack bringing the heat off the edge.
They’re not the type of team to beat themselves, and they force their opponents into costly mistakes. Herbert has already proven he can handle this Texans defense, torching them for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns the last time he visited Houston in a 34-24 win on Oct. 2, 2022.
With their solid coaching and strong play on both sides of the ball, the Chargers are heating up at just the right time. They’re the team nobody wants to face heading into the playoffs.
Over/Under
BET OVER 42 (-110).
The Chargers’ offense is finally matching their defense, scoring 36 PPG over their last 3 games and hitting the Over in 4 straight. Houston’s been part of some high-scoring games too, going Over in 2 of their last 3. These teams combine for 45 PPG, and the Over hit in their last 2 matchups. This one’s shaping up to be another shootout.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X.Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Access more NFL coverage:
BetFTW | TheHuddle Fantasy Football | BearsWire | BengalsWire | BillsWire | BroncosWire | BrownsWire | BucsWire | CardsWire | ChargersWire | ChiefsWire | ColtsWire | CommandersWire | CowboysWire | DolphinsWire | EaglesWire | FalconsWire | GiantsWire | JaguarsWire | JetsWire | LionsWire | NinersWire | PackersWire | PanthersWire | PatriotsWire | RaidersWire | RamsWire | RavensWire | SaintsWire | SeahawksWire | SteelersWire | TexansWire | TitansWire | VikingsWire | DraftWire | TouchdownWire | ListWire
More NFL Picks and Predictions!
SportsbookWire’s NFL Wild Card picks: ML, ATS and O/U predictions for all games
Best NFL underdog picks and predictions for Wild Card weekend
NFL Wild Card Round betting odds: Moneylines, spreads and Over/Unders for all games
