If you’re hoping of waking up on Christmas morning and seeing a white coating of snow on the ground, New Jersey isn’t the ideal place to be.
Based on historical averages, New Jersey’s northwestern counties with higher terrains — like Sussex, Warren, Morris and Passaic — have a 20% to 40% chance of getting a white Christmas in any given year. The odds are worse in other parts of the state.
Most central and eastern counties only have a 10% to 20% chance, and most sections of South Jersey have just a 5% to 10% chance.
Our neighbors in New York City have a 13% probability, and folks in Philadelphia have a 9% chance of a white Christmas in any given year.
Those odds are based on snowfall and temperature stats compiled by the National Weather Service during the past 30 years.
Naturally, weather patterns can shift from week to week, so it’s difficult to predict snow on any specific day in the future.
As of now, weather forecasters say New Jersey has a better chance of seeing a light coating of snow on the ground Friday night and early Saturday than on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.
Forecasters say New Jersey could get light accumulating snow late Friday into early Saturday, depending on the track of a clipper system moving in from the west and a coastal storm developing offshore.AccuWeather
Forecasters are expecting a fast-moving clipper system from the west to brush the Garden State on Friday, and the system may interact with an offshore storm Friday night, bringing a mix of rain and light snow to most of our region.
The National Weather Service says the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey could get 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulating by Saturday morning, with some pockets of 3 inches possible.
Only a dusting to 1 inch of snow is expected across central and southern New Jersey, where slightly warmer temperatures will keep the precipitation as mostly rain, then changing to snow Friday night as temperatures drop near or below the freezing mark.
Forecasters say New Jersey could get light accumulating snow late Friday into early Saturday, depending on the track of a clipper system moving in from the west and a coastal storm developing offshore.AccuWeather
Much colder air will be pushing its way across New Jersey this weekend, with afternoon highs stuck in the low 30s on Saturday and possibly as cold as the mid- to upper-20s on Sunday and near 30 degrees on Monday before climbing back to the mid-30s on Tuesday.
Both the National Weather Service and AccuWeather are calling for mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday and Wednesday, Christmas Day.
AccuWeather says there’s a slight chance of ice overnight on Christmas Eve in northern and central New Jersey, and a 25% to 30% chance of a rain or snow shower Christmas morning.
As of now, no snow accumulation is expected.
Forecasters say New Jersey could get light accumulating snow late Friday into early Saturday, depending on the track of a clipper system moving in from the west and a coastal storm developing offshore.AccuWeather
In case you’re wondering, we don’t need a major snowstorm to qualify as a white Christmas. The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having just 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25 — either fresh snow or lingering snow from a previous storm.
If you want to check the historical odds of seeing a white Christmas in your area of the country, check this interactive map created by NOAA and click on your region.
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.
