The Denver Broncos (10-7) attempt to slay the beast in the East, the Buffalo Bills (12-5), Sunday in an AFC Wild Card playoff game at Highmark Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Broncos vs. Billsodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Broncos gored the Kansas City Chiefs backups 38-0 in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth. QB Bo Nix was 26-for-29 for 321 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. WR Courtland Sutton needed 82 yards to cash a $500,000 incentive clause in his contract, and he had 7 grabs for 98 yards and a score. Before that laugher, though, the Broncos lost 2 straight on the road.
The Bills lost 23-16 to the New England Patriots in Week 18. For some reason, the Patriots decided to win and give up the No. 1 overall draft pick, and QB Josh Allen played one snap to keep his consecutive-start streak alive. RB James Cook saw the most action of the starters with 10 carries for 28 yards and a TD. Buffalo won 3 straight before that setback.
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Broncos at Bills odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 5:09 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Broncos +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Bills -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Broncos +9 (-115) | Bills -9 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Broncos at Bills key injuries
Broncos
- RB Tyler Badie (back) questionable
Bills
- DB Brandon Codrington (hamstring) questionable
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Broncos at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 27, Broncos 17
Moneyline
Both teams are healthy coming into this one. Nix really exceeded expectations throwing for 3,775 yards, 29 TDs and only 12 INTs. His season ends today, though.
From my vantage point, this is the least likely underdog to deliver in all of the Wild Card games. That said, you still can’t risk $550 to win $100.
My first option was Allen anytime TD, but -130 is pretty underwhelming considering the Broncos allowed just 3 QB rush TDs all year. The Broncos have the potential Defensive Player of the Year in CB Patrick Surtain II on one side likely covering WR Khalil Shakir. So where is the mismatch? It’s in the slot with Keon Coleman, a burner that can take the top off a good secondary. Coleman had a touchdown in Week 17, and he was targeted 10 times in Week 18 by backups. He’ll be a focal point.
BetMGM has a “Big Game Playoffs No Sweat Token” that you can use on a wager of -300 or longer for insurance on your max bet. Use that, and take KEON COLEMAN ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (+280) or simply hammer KEON COLEMAN OVER 27.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115).
Against the spread
I’m not messing with a spread this big. Should the Bills win by 10 or more? Yes. Do they have incentive to? Not really. Do I trust this rookie quarterback to keep it within 9 points in this chilly environment? Absolutely not.
Let’s get creative and take JOSH ALLEN ALTERNATE 25 RUSHING YARDS + BILLS ALTERNATE SPREAD -5.5 (-115) in a much safer SGP.
Over/Under
The Bills were 7-2-1 O/U in their last 10, and Denver was 7-3. These teams last met in this stadium Nov. 13, 2023, and the Broncos prevailed 24-22 as 7.5-point dogs. Throw all of that out the window.
Allen and the Bills are playoff veterans, and the Broncos don’t have much playoff experience on the other side. It’s a long way to the top if you wanna rock & roll, and I expect the Bills to get out to a comfortable lead, ride the running game and grind out a slower-paced victory. Take the UNDER 48 (-110).
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