Three days of biting cold weather for NJ, watching weekend storm

The Bottom Line

Welcome back to the cold side, New Jersey. After a couple welcome days respite from the arctic, a new cold, dry air mass has arrived. The result: Another burst of cold and wind. This time around, temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal for the next three days.

Meanwhile, the wind blows. And it bites. While we are not ringing alarm bells for damaging gusts or dangerous wind chills, it will be unseasonable and uncomfortable.

Our next “nice” weather day — and for some in NJ, the next time temperatures will rise above freezing — will be Friday.

New Jersey’s next substantial storm system is set to arrive this weekend. It still looks like mainly a rainmaker, from Saturday to Sunday. But models have trended colder, which lends toward a potentially snowier situation. I do not think we are looking at a “big” storm with travel headaches, although accumulations are not completely out of the question.

Tuesday

Tuesday morning is starting out in the 20s. Not that cold yet. But probably enough to have you reaching for a heavier coat.

The problem comes later on Tuesday, as high temperatures only reach about 30 degrees. Maybe a few 32s or 34s on the temperature map Tuesday afternoon, but that’s it. Keep in mind: Normal highs here in mid-January are still close to 40 degrees.

A brisk breeze, peaking just over 20 mph, will pull down that dreaded wind chill, although known as the “feels like” or “apparent” temperature. At 30 degrees, I calculate a potential wind chill near 20 (at best) Tuesday afternoon.

Otherwise, Tuesday will be mostly sunny with a few flurries flying around.

Tuesday night will be quite cold, as thermometers tumble to around the 20-degree mark. The breeze will continue overnight, leading to wind chills around 10 by Wednesday morning. Definitely time to bundle up again.

Wednesday

Wednesday promises to be the windiest day of the week. And you know Cold + Wind is never a good combination.

Highs will once again reach 30 degrees. But with wind gusts also making a run for 30 mph, the wind chill (“feels like” temperature) may get stuck in the teens.

Other than the biting cold and wind? Wednesday will be fine. Sunny and dry.

Thursday

Thursday will be better than both Tuesday and Wednesday, as the wind finally lightens up.

It will be just as cold Thursday morning (teens) and afternoon (~40) though.

Clouds will increase from partly sunny to mostly cloudy as Thursday goes along.

Some model guidance — not all solutions — show a fast-moving batch of snow showers clipping New Jersey early Thursday morning. I think it is safe to downplay this mini-burst of wintry weather, as not everyone in NJ will see anything. Having said that, I think there is an opportunity for a quick dusting or coating in spots. So it is worth keeping an eye on.

Friday

Friday is the one pleasant January day left this week. As temperatures moderate to more seasonable levels, we should see a high around 40 degrees. Skies should be mostly sunny, with a light breeze.

Again, nothing to complain about here.

The Weekend & Beyond

A warm front-cold front complex will make for an active weather weekend for New Jersey.

First comes the warm. As temperatures push into the 40s on Saturday, widespread light to moderate rain looks likely late-day.

Then comes the cold. Arctic front arrives around midday Sunday, pushing temperatures down again. And possibly introducing a chance of snow.

Model guidance has trended notably colder on that second round of precipitation on Sunday,. That leads me to wonder whether we could see a quick round of widespread snow on the backside of that storm.

It would not be much. But I think there is a potential outcome that potentially includes a few inches of snowfall. A lot of that is track and temperature dependent. And at five days out, our view of the storm is limited and confidence is shaky.

For now, expect periods of inclement weather over the weekend, due to some rain and snow. We will dial in the details more as it gets closer.

Next week looks frigid. Period, full stop. MLK Day could see daytime hour temperatures only in the 20s. Brrr!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.