The Houston Texans (11-7) and Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) meet in an AFC Divisional Round Game Saturday. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Texans vs. Chiefsodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Texans are coming off a 32-12 Wild Card win over the LA Chargers in Houston Jan. 11, covering as 2.5-point underdogs with the Over (42) hitting. Houston intercepted Chargers QB Justin Herbert 4 times — his career high — including 2 picks by CB Derek Stingley.
The Chiefs earned a first-round bye as the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Kansas City had won 6 straight games from Week 12 to 17 before resting several key starters in a 38-0 loss at the Denver Broncos in its Jan. 5 regular-season finale. The Chiefs were also on a 3-0 against-the-spread (ATS) win streak heading into Week 18.
According to reports, Kansas City is expected to activate CB Jaylen Watson (ankle) off the injured reserve for Saturday’s game. Watson has not played since the Chiefs’ 28-18 win at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.
In a Dec. 21 meeting in Week 16, Kansas City beat Houston 27-19 as a 3.5-point home favorite while the Over (42.5) cashed. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes completed 28 of 41 passes for 260 yards with 1 TD and ran for another score, while Texans QB C.J. Stroud (23 of 39) threw for 244 yards with 2 TDs and a pick.
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Texans at Chiefs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texans +375 (bet $100 to win $375) | Chiefs -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Texans +8.5 (-110) | Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Texans at Chiefs key injuries
Texans
- LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) questionable
- WR Stefon Diggs (knee) out
- RB Joe Mixon (ankle) questionable
- WR Robert Woods (hip) questionable
Chiefs
- WR Mecole Hardman (knee) doubtful
- CB Jaylen Watson (ankle) questionable
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Texans at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 24, Texans 17
Moneyline
The Chiefs (-500) went 14-0 straight up in the regular season as favorites, and they’ll likely beat the Texans (+375), but the bid-ask difference is too high in this market.
PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
The Chiefs were just 3.5-point home favorites in the Dec. 21 meeting. Their power rating has been upgraded since they have historically played better in the postseason and are coming off a bye. However, the 5-point move through the key number of 7 seems like a slight overreaction.
Since 2022 — after WR Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins — Kansas City is just 11-14-1 (44%) ATS as a home favorite, according to TeamRankings.com. The Chiefs have been hard to beat straight up at Arrowhead Stadium, but laying the points with them has not been a profitable bet.
BET TEXANS +8.5 (-110).
Over/Under
Houston’s defense has allowed 14 points or fewer in back-to-back games.
Throwing out Week 18, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 19 or fewer in 5 straight games.
A 41.5-point total is a little low — 42.5 was available last Sunday afternoon — but Houston’s defense was too dominant in its Wild Card win for the Over to be a recommended play Saturday. It’s also very unlikely that the Texans score 32 points again; their team total is set at just 16.5 (O: -105 | U: -120).
LEAN UNDER 41.5 (-105).
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