The Baltimore Ravens (13-5) and the Buffalo Bills (14-4) meet Sunday in an AFC Divisional Round playoff game. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Ravens vs. Billsodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
These teams met on Sept. 29 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, with the Ravens posting a 35-10 victory as a 2.5-point favorite as the Under (47.5) cashed. The total has gone low in 4 straight meetings, and 6 of the past 7 in this series.
These teams met in the AFC Divisional Round in Buffalo on Jan. 16, 2021, with QB Josh Allen and the Bills coming away with a 17-3 victory. QB Lamar Jackson was just 14-of-24 for 162 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT in that game, but that was also before the addition of RB Derrick Henry. The latter has added a new dynamic to this offense.
Baltimore posted a 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in the Wild Card round, covering as a 9.5-point favorite as the Under (45) cashed. The Ravens rolled up 299 rushing yards, winning and covering for the fifth straight game since Dec. 1.
The Bills routed the visiting Denver Broncos 31-7 as a 7.5-point favorite last week as the Under (48.5) easily came through. The Bills rested their starters in Week 18. They’ve won 4 in a row, covering 3 of those games, when the full cadre players is in the lineup.
As far as the weather forecast, which is always key in Western New York at this time of year, there are light snow showers in the forecast for at least the first half of Sunday’s game, with temperatures in the upper teens. Winds will be light, and shouldn’t be much of a factor.
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Ravens at Bills odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Ravens -120 (bet $120 to win) | Bills +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Ravens -1 (-115) | Bills +1 (105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Ravens at Bills key injuries
Ravens
- WR Zay Flowers (knee) doubtful
- WR Deonte Harty (knee) questionable
Bills
- RB Ray Davis (concussion) questionable
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Ravens at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 23, Ravens 20
Moneyline
The BILLS (+100) are a solid play at even-money on their home field, even though the Ravens (-120) looked awfully impressive last week against the Steelers.
Still, Baltimore was facing a Pittsburgh team entering play on a 4-game slide, and one it knows very well. Yes, the Ravens pounded the Bills in the first meeting in Baltimore. But, this is the postseason, and it is in Western New York in the snow. Baltimore has a tough, uphill battle against the weather, the fans, a tough team, and against history.
Baltimore’s Jackson won just his third career postseason game last weekend, but can he do it on the road? The Bills getting a point at home seems disrespectful, and Buffalo should find motivation in that, while being spurring on by The Mafia.
Against the spread
Backing the Bills +1 (-110) makes absolutely no sense, as the game cannot end in a tie. So, if you like Buffalo to win, just play it straight up.
If you like the Ravens -1 (-110), laying the point makes more sense than the ML.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 51.5 (-110) is the play in this game, as the weather should be a factor to tamp down scores. We should see a little more running, and less passing.
The Under cashed last week for both of these teams in their playoff openers. The Under also hit in that Week 4 matchup back on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore, too.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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