The Dallas Mavericks (23-21) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (36-7) Thursday. Tip-off from Paycom Center is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Mavericks vs. Thunderodds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mavs lead 2-1
The Mavs came up short in a 115-114 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves Wednesday as 3.5-point home underdogs with the Over (213) cashing. G Kyrie Irving put the team on his back with a game-high 36 points and 9 assists in the loss. The Mavericks announced before the game that C Dereck Lively II will miss 2 to 3 months with a small fracture in his right foot. They were also down 2 other starters vs. Minnesota as Luka Doncic (calf) and G Klay Thompson (ankle) were out.
The Thunder were given all they could handle in a 123-114 home victory over the Utah Jazz Wednesday. OKC came up short as a 15.5-point favorite with the Over (232.5) G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander erupted for a career-high 54 points, while pulling down 8 rebounds, dishing out 5 assists and swiping 3 steals in 37 minutes. The Thunder have won 6 of 7 and 16 of 18.
The Mavs won the last meeting vs. the Thunder 106-98 last Friday, but SGA was out with a wrist injury. Irving led Dallas with 25 points, while F Jalen Williams scored 19 points, leading all 5 Thunder starts in double figures,
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Mavericks at Thunder odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Thunder -800 (bet $800 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +12.5 (-105) | Thunder -12.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mavericks at Thunder key injuries
Mavericks
- G Luka Doncic (calf) out
- G. Jaden Hardy (ankle) out
- C Dereck Lively II (ankle) out
- F Naji Marshall (illness) out
- C Dwight Powell (hip) out
- G/F Klay Thompson (ankle) out
Thunder
- C Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) out
- C Chet Holmgren (hip) out
- G/F Isaiah Joe (illness) out
- G Ajay Mitchell (toe) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Mavericks at Thunder and predictions
Prediction
Thunder 110, Mavericks 100
Moneyline
PASS.
Both teams are on a back-to-back, and Dallas won the last head-to-head meeting. Don’t fall for the +550 trap with the Mavericks, though. During Wednesday’s broadcast, the announcers said that Mavs coach Jason Kidd didn’t want to play Irving heavy minutes because he played 40 minutes at Charlotte Monday. He wound up playing 38 Wednesday.
I also look for a little regression from Gilgeous-Alexander, but I’m on board with SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 11.5 ASSISTS + REBOUNDS (-115). He has gone for 13, 13, 11, 12, 11 the last 5 games.
Against the spread
I’m a little hesitant because of the aforementioned Irving note. If he plays reduced minutes Thursday, I don’t fully trust his supporting cast to keep the Mavs in it. But I also see SGA taking a step back and facilitating more.
TAKE MAVERICKS +12.5 (-105).
Over/Under
I like the UNDER 221.5 (-105) the most here. The last 2 head-to-head meetings resulted in Unders with the most recent going Under 220 as Dallas won at home 106-98 home victory last Friday. Now both teams are playing without rest.
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