The No. 8 Houston Cougars (13-3, 5-0 Big 12) meet the UCF Knights (12-4, 3-2) Saturday. Tip-off from Addition Financial Arena in Orlando is set for noon ET (CBS Sports Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Houston vs. UCFodds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Houston ran its win streak to 9 and remained unbeaten in the Big 12 with a 70-54 home victory over the West Virginia Mountaineers Wednesday. The Cougars came up a hook short of covering as 16.5-point favorites, however, as the Under (125) hit. The Cougars defense was on point, turning 12 turnovers into 25 points. F J’Wan Roberts led the way with 22 points, and G L.J. Cryer chipped in 18.
UCF came up big Tuesday, winning at the Arizona State Sun Devils 95-89 as a 3.5-point underdog with the Over (151) cashing easily. G Keyshawn Hall, a transfer from George Mason, went off for 40 points with 7 rebounds, 6 assists and a steal. The Knights outscored the Sun Devils 38-32 in the paint, a 6-point advantage equivalent to the difference in the final score.
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Houston at UCF odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:19 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Houston -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) | UCF +650 (bet $100 to win $650)
- Against the spread (ATS): Houston -13.5 (-110) | UCF +13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Houston at UCF picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 75, UCF 60
Moneyline
PASS.
This Houston team is terrific and should have no problem covering against UCF (+650), but there’s no way you should ever back a -1000 favorite, which is why I’ll take my wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET HOUSTON -13.5 (-110).
The Cougars aren’t a flashy scoring team, but their defense is on another level, allowing just 54.2 points per game — best in the country. Only three opponents — No. 1 Auburn, No. 5 Alabama and once-ranked San Diego State — managed to score at least 70 points against the Cougars, and SDSU needed overtime to do so.
UCF’s offense, averaging 79.6 PPG (7th in the Big 12), doesn’t pose much of a threat to the Cougars’ lockdown defense. Plus, the Knights defense ranks last in the conference, yielding 77.9 PPG, which should make it even easier for Houston to handle business.
The Cougars have covered in 5 of their last 6 games, while the Knights have failed to cover in their last 2 at home. Behind the Cougars offense and the Knights’ issues, HOUSTON -13.5 (-110) is the play Saturday afternoon.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 137.5 (-110).
UCF has hit the Over in 5 of its last 7 games, but the Knights haven’t faced a defense like the Cougars. There aren’t many teams in the country that can lock things down like Houston.
Houston’s offense, though, isn’t as strong. The Cougars have scored 70 or fewer in 3 of their last 5, and the Under has cashed in 6 of their last 9.
I’ll take Houston’s elite defense over UCF’s scoring, making UNDER 137.5 (-110) the play here.
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