The Vanderbilt Commodores (15-4, 3-3 SEC) welcome the No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats (14-4, 3-2) to Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville Saturday. Tip is set for 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Kentucky vs. Vanderbiltodds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Kentucky, No. 9 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, is coming off a 102-97 home loss to the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday. The Wildcats were 2.5-point favorites and the Over (179) easily hit. The loss snapped a 2-game win and cover streak for Kentucky. The Wildcats are 4-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last 6. They are 9-8-1 ATS on the season.
The Commodores also faced the Crimson Tide in their last game, suffering a 103-87 road defeat Tuesday. They failed to cover as 11.5-point underdogs and the Over (168.5) cashed. The Commodores are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. They are 10-1 straight up at home this season. The Commodores are 12-7 ATS despite a 2-4 ATS record in conference play.
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Kentucky at Vanderbilt odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:41 p.m. ET.
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- Moneyline (ML): Kentucky -166 (bet $166 to win $100) | Vanderbilt +138 (bet $100 to win $138)
- Against the spread: Kentucky -3.5 (-115) | Vanderbilt +3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 163.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Kentucky at Vanderbilt picks and predictions
Prediction
Kentucky 82, Vanderbilt 77
Moneyline
PASS.
Vanderbilt (+138) to win outright has some credence given its odds and the fact that it is 2-1 in SEC competition. But with how the game is expected to go, the moneyline is ultimately a PASS as Kentucky (-166) is too expensive to play to win outright.
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Against the spread
BET KENTUCKY -3.5 (-115).
Simply put, the Wildcats have covered in conference play while the Commodores have struggled for bettors. Kentucky is 3-2 ATS in SEC action, while, as mentioned, Vanderbilt is 2-4 ATS in the conference.
The Wildcats are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites as well. The Commodores are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games as underdogs and have scored 66 points or fewer in 3 of their last 5.
Vandy likely won’t be able to keep pace with an electric Kentucky attack.
Considering these trends, BACK KENTUCKY -3.5 (-115).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 163.5 (-105).
If there’s one thing both sides can agree on, it is the Under. The Wildcats are 3-4 O/U in their last 7 and have traded off going Over and Under in their last 6 — after an Over in their last game, it’s time to go Under. Kentucky has scored 81 points or fewer in 2 of its last 4.
The Commodores are just 2-6 O/U in their last 8 and 8-10-1 O/U on the season. They have allowed 76 points or fewer in 7 of their last 8 while scoring 80 or fewer in 5 of those. Vanderbilt doesn’t have a player shooting over 39.0% from deep who at least is playing more than 2 minutes per game. Vandy may have issues racking up enough points to help have the Over hit.
TAKE UNDER 163.5 (-105).
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