The Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) host the Washington Commanders (14-5) for the NFC Championship Game Sunday. Kickoff from Lincoln Financial Field is set for 3 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Eaglesodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Commanders are coming off a 45-31 NFC Divisional Round victory at the top-seeded Detroit Lions, covering as 8-point underdogs with the Over (55.5) cashing. They have been surging offensively, scoring 68 points in their 2 playoff wins. Washington has won 7 straight games, going 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the streak. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has played turnover-free football, tossing 4 touchdowns vs. 0 interceptions in the postseason.
The Eagles defeated the LA Rams 28-22 in the Divisional Round, though they failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites with the Over (43) hitting. Philly started the season 2-2 before running off 10 victories in a row. The Eagles are 14-1 in their last 15 games, including wins in their last 4 games. They’ve allowed 22 or fewer points in each of those last 4 outings, including 16 points per game in their 2 playoff wins. RB Saquon Barkley has been a driving force, rushing for 324 rushing yards with 2 TDs in Philly’s 2 playoff games.
Commanders at Eagles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:33 p.m. ET.
Expert NFL playoff picks: Unique data and betting insights only at USA TODAY
- Moneyline (ML): Commanders +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Eagles -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +6 (-105) | Eagles -6 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Commanders at Eagles key injuries
Commanders
- OL Sam Cosmi (knee) out
- DL Javontae Jean-Baptiste (shoulder) questionable
- DL Daron Payne (knee/finger) out
Eagles
- C Cam Jurgens (back) questionable
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Commanders at Eagles picks and predictions
Prediction
Eagles 30, Commanders 23
Moneyline
PASS.
The Commanders (+225) have some value on the moneyline, especially considering their success on the road in the postseason. However, considering my prediction of the Eagles (-275) winning, betting the Washington moneyline isn’t worth it.
Meanwhile, the Eagles nearly cost 3 times the potential return. Again, not worth it.
Against the spread
BET EAGLES -6 (-115).
The Commanders’ run defense has been atrocious, which will be a major disadvantage Sunday. In both regular-season games between the NFC East rivals, Washington allowed more than 200 rushing yards.
The Eagles ran for 228 yards in a 26-18 home win in Week 11 as Barkley ran for 146 with 2 TDs. In Week 16, Philly finished with 211 rushing yards with Barkley rushing for 150 with 2 TDs, but Washington won 36-33 thanks to Daniels’ 5 TD passes, including a 9-yard TD to WR Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left for a come-from-behind victory.
Washington ranked 30th among the 32 NFL teams in opponents rushing yards per game (137.5) during the regular season. Slowing down the dynamic Eagles’ attack will be difficult, especially considering the Commanders have allowed 51 points through 2 playoff games.
Philadelphia has allowed 13 or fewer points in 3 of its last 4 games and has a defense capable of slowing down Daniels and Co. The Eagles covered in 4 of their last 6 as well. Plus, in Philly’s Week 11 win at home vs. Washington, the Eagles covered as 4.5-point favorites, winning by 8 and giving up just 18 points.
PHILADELPHIA -6 (-115) is the way to go here.
Over/Under
BET OVER 47.5 (-110).
The Commanders’ defensive woes should give way to points for the home side. If the Eagles are able to get on the board with their run game, that should force the Commanders to speed up the tempo of their play. Washington averaged 34 points in their 2 playoff games, and Daniels has proven he’s the real deal.
Expect Washington to be able to break through as it did in playoff wins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Lions — they won at Tampa Bay 23-20 in a Wild Card Game and scored 45 last week at Detroit. The Commanders went 11-6 O/U in the regular season as well.
The Eagles have scored 25 points per game in the playoffs, so they should be able to carry their load offensively. Considering Daniels’ ability to move the ball mixed with the weak Washington run defense, there should be enough points for the OVER 47.5 (-110) to hit.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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