The Washington Commanders (12-5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) meet Sunday in an NFC Wild Card playoff game at Raymond James Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Buccaneersodds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Commanders pulled off an incredible 8-game turnaround this season, closing it out with a thrilling 23-19 win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18. Even though they didn’t cover as 7-point road favorites, they ended the year on a 5-game win streak. The Under (43) also hit.
A huge part of their success was rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick. He put up a record-breaking year with 3,568 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and just 9 picks while completing 69% of his throws. Daniels also set the rookie QB rushing record with 891 yards.
WR Terry McLaurin made history too, breaking the team record for most receiving touchdowns in a season with 13. The Commanders hit 12 wins for the first time since 1991 — the last time they won the Super Bowl. A turnaround like this doesn’t happen often, and Washington’s season will be one to remember.
The Buccaneers closed out the regular season in style, winning 6 of their last 7 games to secure their fourth straight NFC South title. They capped it off with a 27-19 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 18, though they missed covering as 15-point home favorites. The Over (44.5) hit.
QB Baker Mayfield delivered a career-best season, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 4,500 passing yards, 2nd with 41 touchdowns and 4th in passer rating (106.8). His 71.4% completion rate was 3rd-best in the league.
WR Mike Evans continued his record-breaking streak, reaching 1,000 yards receiving for the 11th consecutive season, tying Jerry Rice. He also snagged 11 touchdowns, marking his fourth double-digit TD season in the last 5 years.
Rookie RB Bucky Irving emerged as a force, leading all rookies with 1,122 rushing yards (10th in the NFL) and adding 392 receiving yards.
This marks Tampa Bay’s first 10-win season since its 2021 Super Bowl run, setting it up for another playoff charge.
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Commanders at Buccaneers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 5:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Commanders +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Buccaneers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +3 (-110) | Buccaneers -3 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Commanders at Buccaneers key injuries
Commanders
- WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring) questionable
- TE Colson Yankoff (hamstring) out
Buccaneers
- CB Jamel Dean (knee) questionable
- S Mike Edwards (quad) questionable
- DL Logan Hall (groin) questionable
- CB Troy Hill (knee/foot) out
- TE Cade Otton (knee) questionable
- S Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) questionable
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Commanders at Buccaneers picks and predictions
Prediction
Commanders 27, Tampa Bay 24
Moneyline
BET COMMANDERS (+140).
This matchup feels like a coin flip. The Buccaneers and Commanders have split their last 10 meetings and are deadlocked at 13-13 all-time, including splitting 2 Wild Card matchups. Tampa Bay is laying 3 points as the home team, but these squads are evenly matched.
The game will come down to playmakers stepping up when it matters most. Both teams are vastly different from their Week 1 meeting — a 37-20 Buccaneers home win Sept. 8. That was Daniels’ first professional game and first road start. He looked nervous and timid, especially in the first half. Tampa’s leading receiver in that game was WR Chris Godwin (ankle), who’s now out for the season.
Evans remains the Bucs’ biggest threat, but Washington traded for CB Marshon Lattimore at the deadline precisely for matchups like this. We’ve seen the fireworks between these two before, and the bad blood will be real.
The key questions: Can the Commanders slow down Tampa Bay’s backfield duo of Irving and Rachaad White? And can the Bucs contain Daniels, who’s been willing Washington to victories all season?
It’s tough to call, but I like the Commanders at plus odds to pull off the road upset.
Against the spread
PASS.
If you would feel better getting points with the Commanders, I completely understand, but I’ll take the moneyline.
Over/Under
BET OVER 50.5 (-110).
The Sept. 8 meeting totaled 57 points, and there’s no reason to expect anything different Sunday.
The Over has hit in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games and 4 of Washington’s last 6. The Buccaneers boast the NFL’s 4th-best scoring offense, averaging 29.5 points per game (PPG), while the Commanders rank right behind them at 28.5 PPG.
With both offenses firing, this game feels destined to go Over.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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